โรงงานของ BYD ในประเทศไทยจะลดการนำเข้ารถยนต์ CBU ภายในปี 2026 ได้อย่างไร: เจาะลึกด้วยข้อมูล

June 22, 2026 · GoEVThai

Thailand’s auto market is in the middle of a seismic shift. In 2023, fully electric vehicle (EV) sales quadrupled to 76,000 units, and Chinese automakers led the charge—BYD alone captured over 30% of that slice. But here’s the twist: nearly all those cars arrived as expensive, fully imported CBU (Completely Built-Up) units. That’s about to change dramatically. BYD’s Rayong factory is scaling fast, and its growing production capacity plus a rising localization rate will radically reshape CBU import volumes by 2026. Let’s dig into the numbers.

BYD’s Thai Factory: A Production Powerhouse

BYD’s plant in Rayong started commercial operations in mid-2024 with an initial annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles. That’s already bigger than many legacy automakers’ Thai facilities. By 2026, internal projections point to a utilization rate of 85–90%, translating to roughly 130,000 to 135,000 units rolling off the line each year. To put that in perspective: Thailand’s total EV sales in 2023 were just over 76,000. So a single factory could supply nearly double the current demand—and BYD isn’t just serving the domestic market. The plant is designed as a right-hand-drive export hub for ASEAN and beyond.

Key capacity milestones:

This sheer scale means Thailand’s appetite for imported BYD cars will shrink precipitously. Instead of shipping CBU units from China, BYD will churn out popular models like the Dolphin, Atto 3, and Seal locally—avoiding steep import duties and shipping costs.

Localization Rate: Climbing the Value Chain

Production capacity alone isn’t the whole story. Thailand’s EV incentive package (EV3.5) ties subsidies to local content requirements. For passenger EVs, manufacturers must prove that at least 40% of components by value are sourced locally by 2026—and that threshold rises to 60% if they want to unlock the full range of tax benefits. BYD is aggressively moving up this curve.

As of early 2025, BYD’s Rayong plant already sources battery packs, wiring harnesses, seats, and plastic trims from Thai suppliers. The battery packs themselves, assembled on-site from cells imported from China, count as localized value. By 2026, the localization rate is expected to hit 50–55%, driven by:

A 55% localization rate would slash the landed cost of a locally made BYD by roughly $3,000–$4,000 compared to an imported CBU unit, once you factor in tariff differentials (CBU EV tariffs drop from 80% to 40% under ASEAN-China FTA, but local production still dodges that bullet entirely). That cost advantage doesn’t just help BYD price aggressively; it makes CBU imports for the mainstream Thai market commercially nonsensical.

The CBU Import Equation: Shifting Sands for 2026

Let’s quantify the impact. In 2023, Thailand imported approximately 72,000 CBU electric vehicles, with BYD accounting for around 24,000 of those. Fast-forward to 2026. With local capacity at 135,000 units and exports chewing up maybe 40% of that output, the domestic availability of locally produced BYDs will hover near 80,000 units. That’s more than enough to cover all domestic retail demand, which is forecast at 60,000–70,000 BYD sales per year by then.

So what happens to CBU imports? They’ll plummet. Our model suggests BYD CBU imports into Thailand will drop from 24,000 in 2023 to fewer than 3,000 in 2026—only niche models or limited-run variants that don’t justify local tooling. The broader market impact is just as stark: total CBU EV imports could shrink by 55% from their 2023 peak, falling below 30,000 units annually. This will hit not just logistics and shipping patterns but also Thailand’s trade balance and the competitive landscape. Rivals who still rely on CBU imports will struggle to match BYD’s localized pricing.

BYD’s Thai journey is a textbook case of how localization and scale-up disrupt traditional import models. By 2026, the flood of CBU EVs will have receded, replaced by a sturdy local supply chain—and consumers will be the ultimate winners.

Full data at goevthai.com